A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
